Національна академія наук України інститут демографії та соціальних досліджень міграційні

As information base for analysis of labour migration is not perfect, the estimation of their scales is based on aggregation of data, received from different sources. According to the most real estimations, the scales of the external labour migrations of the Ukrainian citizens make from 2 up to 2.7 million persons.

Regarding structure of labour migration by legal status and opportunities of statistical accounting, it is possible to define 4 groups, while three basic segments of the Ukrainian labour migration can be defined by aggregation legal status and economic attributes. These groups differ in level of social and labour guarantees.

There is a basic characteristic of the external labour migrations development in Ukraine: the “migratory" money are not only means of the living standards increasing for some population groups, but also a source of investment in the economy of Ukraine. To estimate a sum, earned by the Ukrainians abroad, four variants of labour migrations estimation have been made, depending on two hypotheses of shares of persons, employed in the well-skilled and low-skilled works in the total structure of labour migrants. According to the estimations, the money, earned by the Ukrainian labour migrants, make from 2.1 up to 11.6 billion dollars a year. These figures should be considered the limits of the investigated diapason. According to the most real estimations, the earnings of the Ukrainian labour migrants make from 4.7 up to 7.5 billion dollars, i.e. from 7.2 up to 11.4% of the Ukrainian GDP in 2004.

Realization of economic activity on the foreign labour markets consists not only of labour migrations, but also of economic tourism („shuttle trade”). The numerous surveys allow us to make a rough estimation of the “shuttle-traders” number (from 350 up to 700 thousand persons).

After the Independence of Ukraine, the interstate labour migrations become wide-spread, in particular to the city of Kiev. The numerous contingents of people, actually living and working in Kiev, but registered in other cities and villages of Ukraine, appeared. To create information and methodological bases for analysis of the interstate labour migrations, the Department of Migration Researches of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine realized a survey of the nonresident labour on the labour market of Kiev in 2005 year. The questionnaire of the survey consisted of positions on socially-demographic and psychological characteristics of people, working in Kiev, but not registered there. The population sample was formed by a “snowball” method; 270 people, working at enterprises, in the organizations and establishments of different property type, size and economic branches were interrogated. Labour migrants made 14.1 % of the total number of the investigated employees of enterprises (about 2% of the total Kiev labour force are employed at such type of enterprises). The survey of the nonresident labour at the labour market of Kiev in 2005 revealed socially-demographic characteristics of migrants and problems they are facing. At the same time, the survey was not able to estimate the scales of the phenomenon. This task can be achieved only by cooperation with the governmental bodies and local authorities. In this case, the direct contacts with managerial bodies of the human resources departments at the enterprises will facilitate the survey, while creation of a sample of enterprises by casual selection will be possible (instead of a snowball method).

Nowadays, the analysis of immigration to Ukraine from the developing countries is very urgent. The registered migratory relations between Ukraine and the Asian countries (except for the CIS states and Israel), Africa and Latin America can be characterized by insignificant scales and approximate equivalence of direct and return flows. The educational migrants’ rotation firms the main mechanism of the population migratory exchange with these world regions (departure of their residents, who have received high education in our state, and their replacement with new contingents). At the same time, there are some cases of labour migration and resettlement of the citizens from Afro-Asian countries. Thus, creation of immigration inflow from the developing countries to Ukraine is quite real in the near future (especially in case of the appropriate political decision-making). The Department of Migration Researches carries out the complex analysis of immigration to Ukraine on the basis of association of the date from various information sources (data of the population census on the foreign citizens and representatives of the Afro-Asian nations, current migration statistics, statistics of labour immigration, data on refugees, statistics of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the State Frontier Service, data of different surveys and expert estimations of illegal migration). To investigate public opinion on the expected immigration and the attitude of the Ukrainian youth to representatives of atypical for Ukraine nations, the survey among students of the Kiev universities has been realized. In total, almost 500 people were interrogated, representing 8 Kiev universities. Almost the quarter of them (24.6 %) agreed with a need in involving immigrants from the developing countries (but in small numbers) for mitigation of the sharpest tendencies of demographic crisis. This figure is rather high; thus, it testifies that implementation of immigration policy, directed on attraction of migrants from the developing countries, can be rather successful.

Estimation of an impact of the population movements on demographic and demoeconomical development is a key direction of scientific studies of migration. The methods of estimation of an impact of migrations on transformation of the population age structure is among the main developments of the monograph, as well as the methods of estimation of impact of labour migrations on the labour market development, the methods of construction of tables of the population external labour potential.

Estimation of impact of migrations on dynamics of the population number and structure is defined for period between the censuses, while construction of the corresponding model is based on information on the population at the moments of censuses and number of births and deaths between censuses; it does not consider data of the current accounting of migrations. The model of estimation of impact of migrations on the population number and sex-age structure is based on aggregation of the balance method and method of survival rate. Estimation of impact of migrations on transformation of the population age structure is realized by comparison of the actual parameters of age structure (factor of ageing, factor of support rate on the population of working age, percentage of youth, etc.) with hypothetical parameters, which would exist in case of absence of any migrations. In particular, as the estimations showed, a percentage of the population of most economically productive age (25-44) would be on 0.5% more than the actual one in 2001 (estimated by the population census) given there were no migrations in 1989-2001, while a support rate on the population of working age would appear on 2.5 % smaller.

When estimating impact of labour migrations on the regional labour markets,it is obvious that labour migrants would suggest their labour in a region of residing if there were no opportunities of migrations. In other words, development of labour migrations contributes to decreasing in the labour force supply in regions of departure (and a corresponding pressure on the regional labour market); this decreasing is equal to the number of migrants. However, the "relations" of labour migrants to the domestic labour market are more complicated in reality.

A positive impact of labour migrations on development of employment opportunities at the labour market of the country-donor can be described not only by departure of economically active contingents. A group of people, who have accumulated the needed money, becomes economically inactive, while some contingents of former migrants start their own business and creating new workplaces (for themselves and hired workers). The correct estimation of impact of the external labour migrations on the labour market of a country (region) should consider the number of the mentioned contingents.

If assumptions on the number of labour migrants, their distribution by duration of a trip and features of labour behaviour are correct, labour migration contributes to a 7%-decreasing of the labour force supply at the domestic labour market, while the number of unemployed is reduced more than twice (in four times in the western regions of Ukraine). Thus, if there were no opportunities of labour trips, the Ukrainian unemployment rate (by the ILO methodology) would be close to a critical level.

For such countries of mass labour emigration as Ukraine, estimation of the potential rates of labour migration is very important. The external labour potential of the population is considered as a number of person-years of economic life, appropriate to work abroad for residents of a country (region) under current mortality rates, tendencies of stationary migration changes of employment rates and rates of participation in labour migration. In other words, the external labour potential is a part of the population labour potential, realized outside the country.

Revealing of the quantitative value of the external labour potential is based on the principles of potential demography. The algorithm of calculation of this parameter has been developed in the framework of the study. The external labour potential of the real population of Ukraine has made almost 37 million person-years in 2004-2005, making 5.2% of the country’s labour potential. If the modern trends will be preserved, a newborn has to spend 1.64 years of his/her life in labour migrations.

The multivariable projection of the population migrations in Ukraine and regions has become a result of the study. The nation-wide projection is developed up to 2050 in four variants, presenting scientifically proved assumptions of the future migratory development under certain macroeconomic and geopolitic conditions; moreover, two analytical projections of migrations were considered at development of separate variants of the projected number and structure of the population: a normative variant (under complete absence of the external migrations in 2006-2050) and a stable variant (preservation of the age-specified net migrations at the level of 2005).

In Ukraine, a significant experience of demographic projections has been developed, as well as scientifically proved methodical approaches to estimation of the perspective birth and death rates. At the same time, when projecting migrations, the national experts were usually defining only the total balance of the population shifts in the period under projection (method of expert estimations or extrapolations) with its subsequent distribution by age groups. The projected calculations were based on the totally different technique of migrations’ projecting, including estimation of perspective parameters of arrivals and departures and sex-age structure of migrants by a type and geographical direction of moving. Projection of the population shifts includes three stages. The first stage consists of estimation of the future volumes of arrivals and departures and distribution migrants by aggregated geographical directions (Russia, the western republics of former USSR, the southern CIS countries, territory of the European settling, the Afro-Asian region). The second stage of the projection is in estimation of the perspective structure of migrants, while the third stage of the projection – in calculation of net migrations on a year of a birth.

According to the projection, the population net migrations will exceed +120 thousand persons a year in the end of the projected period (2050) by optimistic variant of the projection and will come to -50 thousand persons a year, according to the worst variant.

Projection of the population migratory movement at the regional level includes two basic stages:

1. 
   Investigation of contribution of some regions to forming of migratory exchange flows between Ukraine and the integrated regions of the world and calculation of parameters of arrivals, departures and net interstate migrations for the total population and different sex-age groups for each region;
   
2. 
   Calculation of the projected parameters of inter-regional migration, detection of a role and a place of each region in the interstate population exchange, calculation of net inter-regional migrations at a level of the population sex-age groups.
   

The total net migrations in a region and in each sex-age group are estimated as a sum of the external net migrations and the inter-regional net migrations (corresponding sex-age group). Projection of population movements of regions is estimated in two variants (optimistic and pessimistic) up to 2025.

Classification of ethnic groups, based on character of moving and period of residing in Ukraine, and projection of ethnic structure of the population of Ukraine up to 2026 were developed in the framework of investigation of the population ethnic structure and interethnic relations. The projection is based on demographic projections, developed by the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; the projection considers analytical researches and scientifically proved assumptions on ethnic differentiation of birth and death rates and rates of participation of various nations in forming separate flows of the external migration.

The Chapters of the Concept and Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine for 2006-2015, devoted to regulation of migratory processes, and the Concept of monitoring of the external labour migrations are among the major results of the study on development of recommendations on forming migratory policy and improving statistical accounting of migratory processes.

The goal of the state migratory policy is to reduce the rates of depopulation, to preserve the population number and structure at the level, providing support of economic development of all regions of the state, based on preservation of the existing mental integrity of the Ukrainian population. Stable positive net migrations can be provided by reduction of departures for permanent stay, provision of the return character of the external labour trips and increase of arrivals to Ukraine. Thus, a restoration of the population of Ukraine at the level of 52 million persons or its stabilization at the present level (47 millions) will demand attraction of significant contingents of migrants (accordingly 500 and 300 thousand people annually). Considering limited migratory potential of the east diaspora and representatives of the deported nations, the main part of immigrants can be attracted from the countries of Asia and Africa. Arrival of such large number of migrants will lead to infringement of mental integrity of the population of Ukraine and internal balance of the society, as well as to difficulties of mutual adaptation of the native and arrived population. At the same time, we have to admit that a rigid counteraction of immigration to Ukraine will cause reduction of the population number up to a critical level and deterioration of adverse deformations of the population sex-age structure.

The tasks of the strategy of migrations regulation include:

• 
  reduction of the scales of illegal labour migration of the population outside the country;
  
• 
  provision of social security of the Ukrainian workers abroad;
  
• 
  provision of the return character of the external labour trips;
  
• 
  wider involving of labour migrants’ earnings in the economy of Ukraine;
  
• 
  prevention of emigration of the well-skilled experts with purpose of employment in the low skilled works;
  
• 
  prevention of illegal migration (transit of illegal migrants from the developing countries through the territory of Ukraine);
  

The main directions of the strategy:

• 
  to expand the opportunities of legal employment of Ukrainians abroad;
  
• 
  to counteract illegal migration (both illegal emigration of the Ukrainian citizens, and illegal immigration of citizens of other countries);
  
• 
  to improve social protection of the Ukrainian citizens in the receiving countries;
  
• 
  to stimulate investment of the migrants’ incomes in the economy of Ukraine;
  
• 
  to mitigate impact of factors, which stimulate departure for work abroad;
  
• 
  to develop active immigration policy.
  

Realization of each direction of the strategy is based on the corresponding set of mechanisms.

The efficiency of the state policy on labour migrations can be achived only in a case of the adequate supply with information. Incompleteness and non-system character of the existing statistical information on the external labour migration considerably complicate development of effective state policy in this sphere. A prior task is to organize effective monitoring of the interstate labour migrations. The developed concept of monitoring of labour migrations is based on four information sources (the additional module to the survey of the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine on economic activity of the population, accounting of labour migrants from rural area, sociological survey of labour migrants, labor migrants surveys in the receiving countries), aggregated on a united methodological basis with detection of a role and a place of each source in their general system, principles of association of the information received from different sources.

The proposed system of regular inspections will allow generating the reliable information base, which is needed not only for analysis of tendencies of labour migrations, but also for political decision-making on migration regulation. The data from different sources will be complementary.

Economic importance of the presented study is caused by development of projection of the population shifts at the national and regional levels within demographic projection and in estimation of a sum of the Ukrainian labour migrants’ earnings for investment in the economy of Ukraine. Based on the appropriate plan of actions, the estimation will provide increasing of the state budget revenues.

Scientific importance of the study is in substantiation of methodological approaches to analysis of migrations, creation of new and improvement of the existing techniques of migration studies, creation of the information base for estimation of some components of the process.

Social importance of the study is caused by theoretical substantiation of the policy in area of the population migrations in the framework of the state social-demographic policy.

The methodical approaches, developed within the study, allow carrying out a quantitative estimation of migrations’ contribution to transformation of the population sex-age structure, to estimate impact of labour migrations on parameters of the labour market, to start potentially-demographic researches of labour migrations.

Implementation of conclusions and recommendations on development of the state policy on migrations and proposals on improvement of migration accounting will promote increasing of efficiency of migrations’ management, mitigate negative consequences of demographic crisis, mitigate a pressure on the labour market, minimize unemployment rates, strengthen social protection of the Ukrainian workers abroad, increase reliability of migratory statistics.

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