1 Центр изучения международных отношений в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе

The Australian Press analysis reveals that APEC Summit in Vladivostok 2012 has not caused the big agiotage. Leading Australian media masses such as the ABC, Sydney Morning Herald, Canberra Times, Melbourn Star, The Australian, The Age on the eve of the Summit gave very little material, and if they were given, they were mostly of the nature of news. Thus the information received on channels of the Russian news agencies of ITAR-TASS, an Interfax, as well as placed on special the Internet portal on APEC 2012. One could hardly find any information about «APEC Summit 2012″ on Internet sites of some editions.

The situation changed somewhat with the start of the Summit. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s ABC, referring to the Moscow correspondent of the BBC stated that »increased economic presence in the key for global development Asia-Pacific region is the most important task of Russia, but its implementation is encountering serious inherent difficulties.” Reffering to Boris Shmelev from the Institute of Economics ABC points out that ‘the main difficulty creates demographics. The most share of the population and, therefore, Russia’s economic potential is concentrated in the European part. The problem is that the Far Eastern regions were depopulated”. Furthermore ABC quoted Wiley Gelbras  Professor of the Institute of Asian and African Studies of Moscow State University that the reorientation of Russia to the East –is just the talks ‘, ‘ the Russian elite is tightly tied to the West. The majority of the population and economic potential is concentrated in the European part of the country and too oriented to the West.” How you can change all that? ‘ asked the scientist. This gloomy picture is added by the extracts from newspaper Kommersant-Vlast. The ‘ Position ‘ of the European powers in Asia ‘, overlooking the countries like China and India in terms of ‘ big brother ‘, rooted during Soviet times and is now nothing more than self-deception. To turn to a raw material adjunct of Asians — rather weak dream for great people with great history, Maybe so. Only if we learn to earn in Asia on selling raw materials, the Russian presence there soon may be a part of this great history ‘. One corporation Samsung has more international patents, than the whole of the Russian Federation. Investment in innovative production in China far exceeds Russia in 40 times. The level of imports supply from Russia to Chinese decreased from 16.5% in 1995 and to 3.4% in 2011. Each of the four largest banks PRC has assets, exceeding the annual GDP of Russian Federation. Hopes to transform Siberia ‘traffic bridge’ between Europe and Asia also still look unreasonable. The Trans-Siberian railway and Baikal-Amur mainline capacity is about 80 million tons per year, five million tons fall on the Northern sea route, at eighty per cent are busy transporting Russian goods. ‘For lack of a better Russia can offer its partners only ‘national idea’ of its ruling class — luxury ‘- writes Kommersant-Vlast’.

In this connection, almost all of the media in Australia do not forget to mention that the Vladivostok APEC summit is the most expensive in history. Last year’s Summit in Honolulu cost 28 million dollars, Summit Yokohama in 2010 year-at 277 million, Summit in Singapore in 2009 year-in 71.8 million, Russian-21.5 billion dollars (699.1 billion rubles).

Many Australian edition quoted interview of the channel Russia Today with Putin. ‘APEC was originally conceived as a forum to discuss economic issues. And it is what we as host country, as the host party, too, intend to focus on economic issues – namely of a socio-economic nature.. We intend to focus on the issues of liberalization of the world economy, on transport, on the food security of mankind».

Arrival of Australian delegation in Vladivostok was overshadowed by the news that father of the head of the Prime Minister delegation Julia Gillard’s  has died, and she was forced to flee Russia and return home to Adelaide to be with the family at the funeral. All Australian MEDIA debating this topic and pointed to words of condolence, expressed by President Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Putin on behalf of the Summit participants expressed condolences Saturday to the Prime Minister of Australia, and then contacted the Gillard by phone, once again expressed its deep condolences and invited her to visit Moscow at a convenient time. The Australian delegation was headed by the country’s Trade Minister Craig Emerson.

On the opening day of the Summit, the largest Australian newspaper The Age released a special application, completely dedicated to the 2012 Summit. It was reprinted in many other publications, notably the Sydney Morning Herald. In the editorial ‘New horizons are expanding to the East,’ they say on the reorientation of Russia’s trade with the West to the East and the prospects of Russia in the Asia Pacific region. Relations between Russia and Australia are in positive tones. The long article devoted to the Trans-Siberian Railway. Many articles in the issue devoted to the theme of culture and sports. Here you can see the materials on the tennis player Maria Sharapova and the Russian national rugby. In the culture contained several articles on Russian fashion. Emphasizes that widespread in the world of Australian footwear «uggs» has much in common with Russian Valenoks. There are articles on contemporary Russian literature, in particular the fantastic works of Sergei Lukjanenko and Anne Starobinec books, writing in the style of «horror”.

Results of the APEC summit in 2012 were announced by the Australian delegation head Craig Emerson, in an interview with Australian broadcaster ABC, BBC, which has been replicated by many other media outlets in Australia. In his point of view, Vladivostok Summit of the Asia and the Asia-pacific economic cooperation has been successful for the participants, including Australia. Among the main achievements of the Summit, the Minister highlighted the adoption of a list of so-called ‘ green ‘ products (products, which leads to the prevention and elimination of environmental damage, as well as the technology of recycling of industrial waste). Summit participants agreed that by the year 2015 trade duties on such goods will not exceed 5 percent of their value. » This agreement means that we get an opportunity to develop free trade flow of goods and technologies, through which you can prevent environmental pollution and to respond more effectively to the challenges associated with global climate change, — Emerson stressed — Vladivostok summit was the first of very many years an international forum in which participants were able to agree on the actual reduction of trade tariffs. The Australian Minister also praised the agreement reached in Vladivostok about promotion of innovative development of APEC countries, including scientific and student exchanges. ‘Education is now the third export item of the economy of our country, even surpassing the volume of liquefied gas — said Emerson. However, it is not just about dollars and cents, but also on cultural understandingof the opportunities for young people to study at universities in other countries and get to know this country. Young people will remember this training forever ‘.

Mass Media of New Zealand as well as the Australian media didn’t pay special attention to APEC summit in Vladivostok, limited only by informational line of news agencies. But on the day of the opening summit in Vladivostok landed a ‘New Zealand troops’. Besides the official delegation, headed by the Prime Minister of New Zealand, John Key, in Vladivostok landed the «troops» included a representative group of New Zealand businessmen and small but cohesive squad New Zealand journalists of the country’s largest conservative newspaper the New Zealand Herald.

Such a high interest of New Zealand to Vladivostok Forum was not accidental. The years between the two countries were negotiating about free trade agreement. In case of signing this document, Russia could become the second country after China to the market which would be open access for New Zealand goods. However, the Russian leadership has insisted on maintaining some protectionist measures, to ensure that a cheap New Zealand products are not causing damage to Russian farmers. Therefore, the New Zealand delegation in Vladivostok expected another  “heavy round of the fight”.

New Zealand businessmen submitted by members of the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF) regularly put their records on the Summit on the pages of the Web site NZMBF. As stated by one of the members of the business delegation, Stephen Jacobi, the Summit discussed the contribution of the New Zealand business in «future prosperity in the region through trade liberalization, security of food and water, infrastructure development, promotion of innovation and new transport routes. New Zealand businessmen took an active part in the work of the various working groups, in particular for small enterprise development, agriculture and transport, and education. The activity of New Zealanders has not passed in vain. Just three men went to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). In their opinion, the most exciting part of the job was the opportunity to meet and interact with the ABAC, which was very influential and successful business people both inside and outside their countries.

New Zealand businessmen were quite satisfied with cultural program of the Summit. In his daily column they wrote about driving on the world’s largest cable-stayed bridge, about visit Revolution Square and memorial submarine. Particularly struck by their entertainment for the delegates of APEC. Here’s how they wrote about it in his column, ‘After the first day of the session, we were treated to lunch in the open air, which was accompanied by a concert of famous Russian artists, including winners of the Eurovision — Buranovskie Babushki.” Reception on the occasion of the closing of the next night was held on a cruise ship ‘Legend of the Seas’, where we were entertained by the famous violinist and conductor Vladimir Spivakov with his chamber orchestra, the Russian pop star. There was a lot of laser light and fireworks, and, of course, a lot of caviar! ‘

New Zealand businesses were satisfied with the general results of the APEC summit. The most significant achievement, in their view, was the decision to reduce tariffs on a list of ‘environmental goods’ to 5 percent by 2015, which in practical terms, the advantage of New Zealand companies producing and exporting these types of products.

A somewhat different impression Vladivostok summit produced on New Zealand journalists, headed by Fran O’Sillivan. As a member of many economic councils, won international awards in the field of journalism, she is one of the most famous and influential New Zealand journalists. Although Fran O’Sillivan stated that its main aim is provide crucial business intelligence on New Zealand which is “informed, influential and indispensable”. Her reports from APEC Summit took place in the best traditions of the cold war. Russky Island she compares with Gulag. Houses are built in the style of «crappy construction standards: lifts stopping mid-floor; toilet doors too large for their frames.

Journalist John Armstrong is solidarity with her In the article «the Curse of Russky Island strikes” In his article, he relates the case when New Zealand journalists stuck in lift with a curse of earlier existing Gulag. He wrote about the death from starvation of four sailors adrift by his superiors (in fact, one sailor died and four were hospitalized). But he didn’t mentioned that the event happened almost twenty years ago, right after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and has nothing to do with the Gulag, no to Putin’s Russia. However Armstrong wrote that the starvation threatened nobody on Summit, food was enough. But here he put his fly in the ointment, saying the organizers had to abandon the traditional Russian borscht, because one of the ingredients is used only to fed animals in some countries. This can be understood so that the Russian eat that in civilized countries get used only animals. Armstrong was also dissatisfied with housing of Russky Island, which he called the «cheap, sterile, modern architecture», only faded, but quaint, charm of Vladivostok was a relief to the eyes.

Business results of the APEC summit also didn’t awoke optimism in New Zealand journalists. Russia didn’t conceded New Zealand on the issue of free trade. Prospects grim and nothing good promise. Blame the «totalitarian regime», «gyp Putin”  and … Pussy Riot. Though, as you know, APEC is not a political organization and on its summits does not relate to issues of policy, the New Zealand journalists devoted several articles to Punk band Pussy Riot. According to Paul Little the locals of Vladivostok catty on Pussy’s rights.

Of course, in the eyes of «progressive humanity» the hooligan group appears in the guise of fighters with «Putin’s regime» for freedom of speech and expression. But,why APEC Summit? After morals of freedom with reference to the Gospel, Little suddenly jumps to a situation with one of New Zealand companies, which has provoked controversy with administration of Vladivostok over the land. The conclusion is, what kind of a fair resolution of the dispute may be involved in a country where even the rights of punk groups have been violated.

John Armstrong looks at the problem is much broader. The problem of Pussy Riot directly connects the inflow of foreign investment in the Russian Far East. At the same time, he recognizes that public opinion in Russia, especially the Orthodox people, is opposed to a punk band, but, in his view, swearing at Christ the Savior is not a serious offense.

Armstrong was also surprised, why the locals aren’t staged protests. And answers this question: “protesting could be a serious hazard to your health. TheRussky island is ringed by warships and S-400 ground-to-air missile launchers, with MiG-31 fighter jets at nearby military bases on alert to scramble at the merest hint of what might look like a terrorist plot.”

Must be mentioned that official delegation headed by the Prime Minister of New Zealand, John Key, was quite satisfied with the APEC Summit and despite of the difficulties on the free trade issues they still believe in further negotiations.

Residents of Russia, especially the Far East, of course, know about the negative aspects associated with the construction of Vladivostok, the theft and corruption, about the construction status. No one takes off  responsibility from the President and the government for that. A number of trials of corrupt officials has already begun. Ultimately, it is our internal matter. This is not the case. The case is in the regard to Russia by some western media in the spirit of the «cold war.» Recall the famous case of the Soviet ambassador to Sweden, on provoking question about Soviet achievements asked by one of the journalist which did not see even a decent toilets in Soviet Russia, revolutionary Alexandra Kollontai answered: «Everyone is looking for what he is most interested.»

By the way ordinary New Zealanders is not thrilled with how journalists described the APEC Summit. On the forums when discussing articles they drew attention to the elements of the cold war, and it was wrong to teach Russian, when themselves are not in order. Here’s how one of them responded to the article by John Armstrong. «Hi-de-hi from Putins, the pollies’ paradise»: These myopic poorly educated so called elders of NZ who are now very wealthy they being a privileged class all thier lives and seeking to maintain the tenacious grip prefer this country at all costs to languish in the dark ages and not make progress. The sooner they all die off the better for this country if we have time to adjust and adapt to handle rapid climate change.

В данном случае нормы международного права на нашей стороне. Вопрос носит исключительно политический характер. При всей моей симпатии к японскому народу, японской истории и культуре, вопросы политического характера не вызывают у меня большого оптимизма. Япония, даже спустя более 60 лет с момента окончания Второй мировой войны, по прежнему, в военно-политическом и, особенно, в оборонном плане зависит от Соединенных Штатов Америки. А ведь именно США явились главной причиной всех территориальных споров «Страны Восходящего Солнца».

В начале этого года многие информационные агентства со ссылкой на статью в японской газете Japan Times сообщили о том, что Россия в 1992 году тайно предложила вернуть Японии два из четырех островов (Хабомаи и Шикотан) до заключения мирного договора, а потом продолжить решать вопрос о суверенитете над Кунаширом и Итурупом. Статья ссылается на интервью господина Кадзихико Того, возглавлявшего японскую делегацию на переговорах о четырех островах до конца 1991 года. При этом оговаривается, что сам господин Того не присутствовал на переговорах, проходивших между министром иностранных дел Японии Митио Ватанабэ и его российским коллегой Андреем Козыревым, а узнал об этом из некого дипломатического документа.

По словам Того, тогдашний министр иностранных дел России А. Козырев предложил вернуть под контроль Японии Хабомаи и Шикотан до тог, как Токио и Москва обсудят сроки и процедуру их передачи, а далее провести переговоры о том, как «наилучшим образом осуществлять управление Кунаширом и Итурупом». Того считает, что этот шаг являлся «крупной уступкой со стороны Москвы» и был вызван «уменьшением ее политического влияния» и тем, что Россия придавала «большое значение связям с такой мощной экономической державой как Япония». Однако Япония тогда отвергла это предложение, так как в нем «не было гарантий возврата всех четырех островов».

 Утечка «секретной» информации именно в начале начавшегося года произошла не случайно. В Японии к власти вновь вернулась либерально-демократическая партия, и новый премьер Синдзо Абэ пообещал в кратчайшие сроки решить проблему Курильских островов. Япония видимо поняла всю бесплодность своих попыток вернуть все четыре острова и ухватилась за новое предложение поделить острова пополам. В таком случае за Россией оставался бы только Итуруп и северная часть Кунашира.

  Даже если предложение А. Козырева действительно существовало, то оно вполне поддается объяснению. Достаточно вспомнить в каком состоянии находилась Россия в 1992 году. Экономический хаос, падение производства, «грабительская приватизация», бандитизм и политическая нестабильность. «Верхняя Вольта с ракетами» — так отозвалась о тогдашней России Маргарет Тэтчер. Правительство Ельцина лихорадочно искало поддержки у западных стран и слезно вымаливало кредиты на поддержание разваливавшегося хозяйства. Министр иностранных дел А. Козырев показывал в эти годы далеко не лучшие качества российского дипломата. Если в свое время министра иностранных дел СССР А. Громыко на Западе называли «мистер Нет», то Козыреву вполне бы подошло прозвище «мистер Да» за его постоянные уступки западным странам. Может быть, у Японии в то время и был шанс ухватиться за подобное предложение, но, как известно она от него отказалась.

 Сейчас ситуация совершенно другая. Современная Россия не Россия начала 90-х годов, Путин не Ельцин, а Лавров не Козырев. Россия все увереннее чувствует себя в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. Недавний саммит АТЭС во Владивостоке тому подтверждение. Не намерена Россия просто так расставаться и со своими территориями, о чем свидетельствует визит Д. Медведева на Кунашир. Да, социально-экономическая ситуация на Дальнем Востоке еще не вполне благополучна, но поворот в сторону развития региона начался. Японские инвестиции в экономику России, конечно, были бы желательны, но они уже не являются жизненно важными для страны. Инвестиционную активность в регионе проявляют Китай, Корея и другие страны АТР. Так, более 40 корейских фирм уже сейчас работают на тех же самых Курильских острова, вкладывая деньги в развитие инфраструктуры и перерабатывающей промышленности. Не прочь поучаствовать в освоении Курил и китайские компании. В таких условиях в политических и общественных кругах России все чаще задаются вопросом, а стоит ли вообще отдавать что либо Японии? Россия владеет островами на законных основаниях, подкрепленных решениями Ялтинской, Потсдамской и Сан-Франциской конференций. От Декларации 1956 года, согласно которой Советский Союз готов был передать Японии в качестве жеста доброй воли Хабомаи и Шикотан, после подписания мирного договора, Япония отказалась, от предложения Козырева (если оно было) тоже отказалась, а отсутствие мирного договора между двумя странами особой головной боли у россиян не вызывает.

 В последнее время, мне, как руководителю Центра изучения международных отношений в АТР приходилось встречаться с японскими делегациями и официальными лицами различного уровня. На этих встречах японских коллег все чаще интересовали два основных момента: сможет ли В. Путин своим волевым решением отдать половину островов и как прореагирует на это российское общество. При этом японцы ссылались на решение пограничных проблем с Китаем, в частности Большого Уссурийского острова. Мол, ничего страшного не произошло, остров был поделен и все довольны. Нам приходилось объяснять японским коллегам, что российско-китайское пограничное разграничение нельзя сравнивать с территориальными спорами с Японией. Это совершенно разные ситуации. И главное отличие состоит в том, что разграничение с Китаем велось на основе международных конвенций по проведению границ по рекам. Мы готовы были привести границу в соответствие с нормами международного права еще в советское время. В 2004 году долгая работа по разграничению была закончена и был заключен соответствующий договор. Что касается Большого Уссурийского острова, то Китай в свое время претендовал на весь остров, но в итоге было принято взаимовыгодное решение.

 Вопрос о Курильских островах лежит совсем в другой плоскости. В данном случае нормы международного права на нашей стороне. Вопрос носит исключительно политический характер. При всей моей симпатии к японскому народу, японской истории и культуре, вопросы политического характера не вызывают у меня большого оптимизма. Япония, даже спустя более 60 лет с момента окончания Второй мировой войны, по прежнему, в военно-политическом и, особенно, в оборонном плане зависит от Соединенных Штатов Америки. А ведь именно США явились главной причиной всех территориальных споров «Страны Восходящего Солнца». По инициативе американцев Курильские острова были переданы Советскому Союзу, по решению США острова Токто были переданы Японии, а не Корее, а острова Сенкаку Японии, а не Тайваню. В этом прослеживается продолжение старой англо-саксонской политики «разделяй и властвуй». Имея большое количество нерешенных территориальных вопросов Соединенным Штатам легче держать на поводке своих союзников.

 Между тем, Вторая мировая война, так же как и «холодная война» остались в истории. В условиях нового глобализирующегося мира становиться гораздо важнее экономическое и культурное сотрудничество между странами, нежели бесплодные попытки изменить послевоенный статус-кво.

In this case, the norms of international law are on our side. The question is purely political in nature. With all my sympathy for the Japanese people, Japanese history and culture, issues of a political nature doesn’t make me optimistic. Japan, after more than 60 years since the end of World War II, is still in the military-political and, especially, in terms of the defense depends from the United States of America. Meanwhile the United States was the main cause of all territorial disputes ‘Land of the Rising Sun.’

In the beginning of the year, many news agencies, citing an article in a Japanese newspaper Japan Times reported that in 1992 Russia secretly proposed return to Japan two of the four islands (Habomai and Shikotan) prior to the conclusion of a peace treaty, and then continue to solve the issue of sovereignty on Kunashir and Iturup. The article refers to an interview with Mr. Kadzihiko Togo, who led the Japanese delegation at the negotiations on the four islands to the end of 1991. At the same time  it stipulates that, Mr. Togo didn’t attended the negotiations held between Japanese Foreign Minister Michio Watanabe and his Russian counterpart, Andrei Kozyrev, and learned about it from a certain diplomatic document.

According to Mr. Togo, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation A. Kozyrev offered to return control of the Habomai Islands and Shikotan Island to Japan before Tokyo and Moscow will discuss a schedule and procedure for their transfer, and then negotiate what are the ‘best ways tomanage Kunashir and Iturup ‘.  Mr. Togo believes that it was a step of «a major concession on the part of Moscow” and was caused by «a decrease in its political influence”, and that Russia attached «great importance of relations with such a powerful economic power like Japan.» But Japan then rejected this proposal because it «did not guarantee the return of all four islands.

Leak of  «secret» information at the beginning of the year, was not accidental.  In Japan, the authorities have returned to the Liberal Democratic Party, and the new premier Shinzo Abe promissed in the shortest possible time to solve the problem of the Kuril Islands. Japan apparently realised the futility of their attempts to return all four islands and jumped at a new proposal to divide the island in half. In that case, Russia would remain only to Iturup and Kunashir northern part.

Even if the proposal of A. Kozyrev really exist, it is quite easily to explain. Enough to remember in what condition was Russia in 1992. Economic chaos, the decline in production, ‘predatory privatization’, banditry and political instability. ‘Upper Volta with missiles’ — said of Russia at that time, Margaret Thatcher. Yeltsin’s government desperately sought support from Western countries and tearfully begged loans to support the economy that was falling apart.  Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev these years was far from the best qualities of the Russian diplomat. If at that time the Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko was known in the West as ‘Mr. No’, so Kozyrev will suit the nickname «Mister Yes» for his constant concessions to Western countries. Perhaps Japan at the time, had a chance to grasp such proposal, but as we know has refused of it.

Now the situation is completely different. Modern Russia is not Russia of early 90-ies, Putin is not Yeltsin, and Lavrov is not Kozyrev. Russia confidently feels in the Asia-Pacific region, and the recent APEC Summit in Vladivostok is prove it. Russia is not going just to give up their territories, as evident from Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Kunashir. Yes, the socio-economic situation in the Far East is still not entirely satisfactory, But the turn toward the development of the region began. Japanese investment in the economy of Russia, Of course, would have been desirable, but they are not already vital for the country. Investment activity in the region is expressed by China, Korea and other Asian countries. So, more than 40 Korean firms now operate on the Kuril Islands, investing in infrastructure and processing industry. Chinese companies are also not averse to participate in the development of the Kuril Islands. In such circumstances, political and social circles of Russia argue about necessity to give anything to Japan? Russia owns the islands legally backed by decisions of the Yalta, Potsdam and San Francisco Conference. Declaration of 1956, according to which the Soviet Union was ready to hand over Habomai and Shikotan to Japan as a gesture of good will, after the peace agreement.

Recently, I, as head of the Asia-Pacific international relations StudyCenter had to meet with Japanese delegations and officials of different levels. At these meetings, the Japanese colleagues are increasingly interested in two main issues: whether Putin could give half of the Islands by his strong-willed decision and how will Russian society react to this. The Japanese referred to the decision of the border problems with China, in particular Large Ussuriisk island. Like, nothing terrible has happened, the island was divided, and everybody is happy. We had to explain to Japanese colleagues that the Russian-Chinese border delimitation cannot be compared with territorial disputes with Japan. This is a totally different situation. And the main difference is that the distinction with China was based on the international conventions for the borders of the rivers. We were ready to bring the border in accordance with the rules of international law since the Soviet time. In 2004, the long lines of work was completed and a contract has been concluded. With regard to the large Ussuriisky island, China at one time claimed the whole island, but in the end was taken mutually beneficial solution.

In this case, the norms of international law are on our side. The question is purely political in nature. With all my sympathy for the Japanese people, Japanese history and culture, issues of a political nature doesn’t make me optimistic. Japan, after more than 60 years since the end of World War II, is still in the military-political and, especially, in terms of the defense depends from the United States of America. Meanwhile the United States was the main cause of all territorial disputes ‘Land of the Rising Sun.’ At the initiative of Americans Kuril Islands were ceded to the Soviet Union, the U.S. decision Dokdo Island was transferred to Japan, not Korea, and the Senkaku Islands in Japan, not Taiwan. This is a continuation of the old Anglo-Saxon policy of «divide and conquer». Having a large number of unresolved territorial issues to the United States easier to keep on a leash of their allies.

Meanwhile, World War II and the cold war left in history. In the new globalized world much more important economic and cultural cooperation between the countries, rather than fruitless attempts to change the postwar status quo.