Хабаршы вестник халықаралық Қатынастар және халықаралық ҚҰҚЫҚ сериясы

Раздел 3

Strategy 2030 visualizes future development of Kazakhstan. The strategy outlines following long term priorities of Kazakhstan development: national security, internal stability, economic growth, education, health and welfare of citizens, energy resources, infrastructure (communications and transport) and professional state employees.

The energy resources are put as 5th long term priority. It includes 1) long term partnership with international oil companies. The partnership implies investments, hi-tech, employment, professional training, ecology, social programmes, transparency 2) creation of pipeline systems for oil and gas exports. It implies lessening of Kazakhstan dependence and monopoly of consumer price, diversified transportation routes 3) long term partnership with world powers and strengthening of Kazakhstan’s role as world oil supplier. It implies international legal, political, economic as well security support of Kazakhstan 4) development of internal energy infrastructure, self sufficiency, internal pipelines, and modernization of current processing plants and construction of new modern refineries 5) use of energy revenues for development and future generations. It implies smart investment of petrodollars in education, human resources and creation of various development institutions [1].

Kazakhstan is one of the oil rich countries in the world. Kazakh President Nazarbayev has said that Kazakhstan would become one of the top ten energy exporters in the world by 2012. With proven oil reserves of 9 billion barrels and probable reserves of upto 29 billion barrels, Kazakhstan is Central Asia’s energy titan. By 2015 Kazakhstan would produce 120-150 million tons of oil and 30 billion cms of gas [2]. The existing and emerging energy transit routes make it a potentially valuable ally to both Asia and Europe and to the United States as well. Kazakhstan offers an alluring prospect of supply diversification for countries overly –dependent on the Persian Gulf region or Russia [3].

Apart from significant oil and gas resources, Kazakhstan with its 25 % share of the world reserves has all necessary foundations for uranium industry.

Thus, like many resource-rich nations, the Kazakh economy is driven primarily by its energy industry which accounts for a third of government revenues and more than half of the country’s export income. Most of the foreign direct investment is also targeted at developing its oil and gas fields or in the construction of pipelines to take this energy to global markets. However, Kazakhstan’s ability to harness its hydrocarbons for accelerating its growth will critically depend upon its ability to diversify the whole Kazakhstani economy and attract investments and to rapidly expand its access to global energy markets [4].

A substantial part of Kazakh reserves are located in the Caspian Sea whose legal status is still indeterminate. 75 explored oil fields (1 billion tons of oil) are located in Atyrau oblast, Western Kazakhstan. 39 oil fields (846 million tons of oil) are now under development. 7 oil fields are under preparation for development. 24 oil fields (50 million tons of oil) are under supplementary exploration. Tengiz (800 million tons of oil), Korolevskoe (30,5 million tons), Kenbai (30,8 million tons) are regarded to be largest oil fields in Atyrau oblast.

Maghystau oblast comes after Atyrau oblast with 70 oil fields. 27 fields are actively being developed. Uzen, Zhetybai, Kalamkas, Karazhanbas are regarded to be largest oil fields in Manghystau oblast.

Kashaghan (Western Kazakhstan oblast) and Zhanazhol (Aktobe oblast) are regarded to be oil fields with prosperous future. Kashaghan, the last major oil find anywhere in the world in a quarter of a century and termed the ‘elephant’ field, will commence production in 2008. Kashaghan reserves are estimated to be 7 billion tons. Kashaghan, north-eastern part of Caspian offshore is located in 75 km to south-east of Atyrau. By 2015 only Kashaghan oil field will give 3 million barrels a day. It is equal to what Iran is extracting now.

In 2004, Kazakhstan produced approximately 1.22 million barrels a day of oil of which its own consumption was 224,000 barrels daily, making available approximately 1 mbd for exports. For the first half of 2005, Kazakhstan's exported on average 1.1 million barrels daily in three directions: northward through the Russian pipeline system and rail network; westward through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and in barges to Azerbaijan and southward through swaps with Iran. Kazakhstan also exported approximately 30,000 barrels a day eastward to China via the Alashankov rail crossing in 2005(5). The expected growth of oil extraction and the introduction of BTC and Atasu –Alashankou pipelines this year would increase production and export of oil.

Kazakhstan is also home to substantial gas deposits. The country produced 20.49 bn cm of gas in 2004, up 45.9 per cent over the previous year. Production grew 36 % year-on-year in the first eight months of 2005 to 17.44 bn cm. Kazakhstan plans to increase production to 50 bn cm a year by 2010 and to 80 bn by 2015. Gas exports are entirely routed through Russia. However, Kazakhstan now wants to build a gas pipeline to China for which it has signed a preliminary agreement with that country. Kazakhstan is also open to the idea of linking up this proposed gas pipeline to supplies from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as well.

The rich oil reserves, new explorations and Kazakhstan’s initiatives on attraction of investments have evoked interests of foreign countries as well as international companies to the region, especially to Caspian Sea. The huge amount of investments has been flown into the region. Kazakhstan attracted 80 % of all investments of Central Asia.

When oil from all the fields begins to flow at full capacity, Kazakhstan will need to strengthen its export capacity and processing capabilities. This will require more export pipelines, processing plants and a diversified customer base as well. After all, security of markets is as much a concern for the suppliers as security of supply is to the buyer. The issue is not only economical but also geopolitical.

The processing incapability of Kazakhstan increases its dependence on Russia. In this regard, Kazakhstan’s strategy is to modernize existing processing plants, participate in joint ventures and construct new modern plants. At present, the Kazakhstani oil processing capacity is 18, 5 million tons in a year (Atyrau, Pavlodar and Shymkent oil processing plants). Kazakhstan is dependent on Russia in more than 50 % the processing. For instance, Shymkent and Pavlodar oil processing plants process western Siberian oil through Omsk and Chardjou (Turkmenistan) pipelines. Pavlodar oil processing plant is 100% dependent on western Siberian oil. Usually Shymkent oil processing plant processes 75% western Siberian and 25% Kumkol oil.

Atyrau oil processing plant processes 100% Kazakhstani oil from Manghishlak, Tengiz, Martyshi.

Pavlador oil processing plant is the youngest plant among Kazakhstani processing plants. It was built in 1978. The capacity of the plant is 7, 5 million tons of oil in a year. The problem of Pavlodar oil processing plant is its technological dependence from western Siberian oil. It can process only western Siberian oil where sulfur and paraffin level is low. This makes pressure leverage for Russia. It can easily hamper work of Pavlodar oil processing plant by simply closing western Siberian oil supply.

Atyrau oil processing plant is one of the oldest plants in Kazakhstan. It was built in 1945. Unlike Shymkent and Pavlodar plants, Atyrau plant is oriented for local heavy oil. However, old equipment of the plant is not able to process oil which fits modern standards. The government is now renovating the plant. The renovation costs 1, 2 billion $. Since internal transportation is under developed and foreign companies are reluctant to invest in local oil processing plants the local processing of the oil still remains at low level.

Being a land-locked country, up to 2006 all energy transit routes led north to Russian territory. Thus, Kazakh oil flowed into Black Sea terminals through pipelines whence it was shipped to European destinations. Central Asian gas pipelines also headed north, supplying Russia and freeing up Russian gas for sale in Europe.

However, the three new pipelines – CPC, BTC and the China pipeline have helped Kazakhstan move away from Russian transit control to some extent.

Developed by the joint efforts of the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan with the help of a consortium of international companies 1,5 thousand km CPC (Caspian pipeline consortium) connects Kazakhstan's Caspian Sea area oil deposits with Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The pipeline has been functional from 2001 and its capacity, currently at 560,000 barrels a day. One third of Kazakhstan’s oil exports – mainly from the Tengiz field - flow through this pipeline. The project costs 2 billion $.Chevron, BP-Amoco, Lukoil and Russian government (24 % of share) along with Kazakh government (19%) are playing major role in the project.

As attempt to diversify routes in northern dimension, recently Kazakhstani Company “KazakhMunayGas” took part in the bid for Lithuanian oil processing complex “Mazeiku nafta”. It lost its bid for polish PKN Orlen. In spite of cordial relations with Russia, business remains business. Kazakhstan’s ambition to enter a European market is not in Russian interest. It was vividly seen when Russian “Transneft” refused to pump 12 million tons of Kazakh oil to Lithuania. This made KMG vulnerable in the above mentioned bid.The reason of Russian reluctance in expanding Kazakh presence in European market is that oil terminal in Buting loads 1, 2 million tons of oil. KMG intended to increase it by 10 times. This would made serious competition to Russian Baltic pipeline system and Russian oil supplies from Leningrad oblast ports.

However, Kazakh side is still striving to find its place in Baltic region. It looks now for opportunities in Latvia.

Even in the joint Caspian pipeline consortium, Kazakhstan could have problems. On May 2006 Russia announced that 24 % of Russian share could be given to “Transneft” which was proponent of increasing tariffs for Kazakhstan in order to limit Kazakh accession to European markets.

Baku –Tbilisi- Ceyhan was debatable issue for 10 years. On June 5 2006 in Ceyhan first 300 thousand tons of Azeri oil flowed through BTC. That was the end of the debates. The pipeline was called “Silk way of 21st century” .The pipeline links Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

The BTC (Baku –Tbilisi-Ceyhan) pipeline, built at the behest of the United States by a consortium led by American oil companies is 1760 kilometer long. Kazakhstan’s oil exports – mainly from the Kashaghan field will flow through this pipeline. So this is another opportunity for Kazakh oil to flow west. In 1999 Kazakhstan signed treaty on accession to Baku – Tbilisi- Ceyhan project. The 50 million ton capacity of the pipeline enables Kazakhstan to export 25 million tons. The Eni-led consortium is working on developing a transportation system at a cost of US $ 4 billion. Thus BTC undermined “Transneft” monopoly in oil transportation and became viable non-Russian option for Europe, which after the Ukraine incident, is cautious about excessive dependence on Russian energy supplies. For the US, whose companies have taken the initiative of unlocking the oil potential of the landlocked Caspian by building the BTC pipeline, Kazakh oil is an attractive alternative to move away from dependence on instable Persian Gulf and lessen Russian influence in the region. Aktau port is another way to bring Kazakh oil to BTC pipeline. The port has capacity of transporting 8, 9 million tons. Now Kazakhstan is constructing second part of Aktau port which will allow by 2008 to transport 20 million tons. (6)The upgrading and renovation of Aktau port reach 242 mln $.

Today Kazakhstan is exporting 48 million tons, and BTC together with CPC can transport 55 million tons of Kazakh oil. However oil extraction is growing and it is believed that Kazakhstan needs more routes for transportation and independence.

China has been always seen as lucrative market for Kazakh oil. For China, whose oil consumption has grown exponentially over the last few years Kazakh oil represents a promise of supply diversification. China is considered to be 2nd oil consumer in the world. Its economy is booming and it desperately requires oil and gas to keep the track. At present China is importing more than half of its oil from West Asia, which means that the U.S. navy based in West Asia can always close oil flowing to China. In this regard it is logical for China to look for opportunities to secure optional oil and gas supplies. Seizing the opportunity of its geographical location, China is investing in neighboring oil rich countries such as Kazakhstan and Russia. Taking into consideration that China was late comer to the region, China offers very lucrative deals in order to get access to resources of the region.

As a result, in July, 2006 Kazakhstani oil has begun to flow to China. Atasu –Alashankou pipeline allows exporting 10 million tons of Kazakh oil to China. It is expected that western Siberian oil will increase Atasu-Alashankou pipeline capacity upto 20 million. Now gas pipelines are under discussions. There are two options for the gas transportation. First it would require less investment if it is constructed on the base of Atasu-Alashakou oil pipeline infrastructure. Another option is to construct gas pipeline linking southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Another eastern pipeline to China links the onshore Kumkol oil fields in southern Kazakhstan which is also controlled by CNPC (Chinese National Petroleum Corporation) now. The first stretch of 988 kilometers is now complete. Eventually, this pipeline will be 3000 km long and could initially deliver upto 200,000 barrels of oil daily to Xinjiang where oil will be processed and sent to other markets in China. Pipeline to China gains significance especially in “Transneft” issue. Kazakhstan exports 12 million tons through Russia. If we assume that these routes prove to be unreliable, it is possible to divert the oil to eastern direction. Now it is planned that the eastern pipelines capacity will reach 15 million tons in a year.

Southern route through Iran is capable of receiving 1, 4 million tons i.e. it is possible to export 5, 9 million of tons which is 12 % of Kazakh oil export. Iranian route is very interesting and lucrative option. Iran is ready to transport up to 12 million tons in the framework of swapping with Kazakhstan. The swapping project implies that oil (2-6 million tons) would be transported from Aktau port to Iranian ports and later substituted by Iranian oil in Persian Gulf. Moreover, Iran is now actively working on Kazakhstan –Turkmenistan-Iran pipeline project. This project would allow for Kazakh and Turkmen oil and gas to get access to Persian Gulf (Hark Island) and further to Pakistan, India and South-East Asian countries. However, this route is complex in political and security terms. The route is opposed by the U.S. The American Congress forbids any American company to work with Iran. But it doesn’t mean that it closes doors for other potential investors. Iranian project is supported by Total (France) and Japan. (7) Turkmenistan on its part will possibly construct pipeline to Northern Iran. This will change dimension of Iranian pipelines which are now transporting gas from Southern Iran to Northern and increase Caspian oil share in Arabian Sea.

Kazakhstan is always in the process of opening up new export routes. Kazmunaigaz has recently concluded an agreement with an Ukrainian company to set up a joint venture to build an extension pipeline to the Odessa-Brody -Gdansk line. The Kazakhstani oil can be transported through sea route to Ukrainian port Yujnii and further to Yujnii –Brody (on the Polish-Ukrainian border). The oil terminal Yujnii near eastern coast of Grigorievskii coastal lake is ready tp receive oil. Pipeline from Yujnii - Brody - “Drujba” pipeline is made too. It is expected that total capacity of the route will be 40 million tons. However before this project begins to work, issues such as the tanker marine has to be tackled. The Ukrainian route found support from American, Kazakhstani, Polish, and Azerbaijani and Georgian governments (8). Eventually, this pipeline will help Kazakhstan reach Caspian oil to European markets directly, a move that has caused considerable concern in Moscow. (9) Another option is Atyrau-Samara and “Drujba” pipeline allows to be linked to other NIS and Baltic states.

India is the sixth largest energy consumer in the world. International Energy Agency estimates that by 2010, India will be importing 3.4 mbd of crude – 83 per cent of its consumption - if it has to maintain its current growth momentum. India’s newly launched Integrated Energy Policy also estimates that India’s oil demand will increase to at least 200 million tonnes by 2025. (10) Crude imports account for around 75 per cent of India’s domestic consumption. Supply disruptions therefore, have serious implications for India. India’s oil imports – as much as 68 per cent - come from the Gulf region. The proposal to build a pipeline from Iran to northern India via Pakistan, another to bring Turkmenistan’s gas via Afghanistan and Pakistan to India and a third from Myanmar’s Shwe gas fields to eastern India are still at negotiating stages. Until thorny relations with Pakistan and Bangladesh are sorted out, shipping will remain India’s main energy lifeline.

For some years now, India’s premier exploration and production company ONGC has been participating into oversea activities through its subsidiary ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL). The company now claims presence in 12 countries. In Kazakhstan, OVL had submitted a bid for minority stake in Kurmangazy oil field which is being shared equally by Russia and Kazakhstan. However, this field, one of the largest offshore fields in the region, went to Total of France. Instead, OVL has been offered two other fields - Satbayev and Mukhambet – both medium sized. OVL had bid for another oil field owned by Petrokazakhstan in August 2005, but China’s CNPC won the bid and acquired this field.

Despite being located in Central Asia’s extended neighbourood, India has been a late entrant into the grand oil game, owing to a variety of factors. First, the Persian Gulf is the most proximate and therefore, natural supply source for India which gets as much as two thirds of its imports from the Persian Gulf. However in order to diversify its oil supply India needs look beyond Persian Gulf in the future. Second, recent developments in the Persian Gulf made oil installations particularly vulnerable to terrorist attacks which can lead to serious supply disruptions.

India is now looking for more opportunities in the region and in Kazakhstan. It has certain successes such as observer status in SCO, navy base in Aini (Tajikistan). It is promoting such mega projects as “Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India” and “Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan” pipeline.

The pipeline projects have been discussed since 1995. The “Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan” pipeline consortium comprises of Unocal-Delta, Turkmengas, Gazprom, Huyndai Co,Itochu Japan, Krefing Pakistan. The pipeline would have 1300 km length with capacity of 20 billion cms a year. The capacity could be increased by 60 billion cms a year with extension to India. However the project is frozen because of difficult situation in Afghanistan and disputes between India and Pakistan.

Central Asian energy resources and especially Kazakh oil could play a vital role in helping India diversify its sources of oil supply and thus enhance its energy security. In fact, thanks to the BTC pipeline, Kazakh oil has begun to flow into India as well. In 2005, India’s BPCL purchased a consignment of Kazakh oil at the Mediterranean port and shipped through the Suez Canal to Mumbai. During his tenure in the ministry, former Petroleum minister of India, Mr.Mani Shankar Aiyar had proposed a pipeline from Iran’s Neka terminal all the way to Bander Abbas to be built with Indian participation in Iran. This will allow Kazakh oil to be loaded at Neka and sent through pipeline to the southern coast of Iran from where it could be shipped to refineries in western India. While international companies may be shy of investing in Iran on account of the somewhat volatile international situation, Indian companies can undertake this project in collaboration with Iranian companies and possibly Russia’s Gazprom, After all, the latter is willing to participate in the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. Russia might have less objections to routing Kazakh oil to India than to the west through the BTC pipeline (11). In this sense, experts consider that it is in Russian interests to involve India into region in order to counter balance American and Chinese influence. India could possibly collaborate with Kazakhstan in setting up refinery and processing. Similarly, Indian companies can also participate in downstream petrochemical and fertilizer sectors to add value to gas from Kazakhstan’s offshore fields.

Kazakhstan has the third largest natural uranium deposits – as much as a fifth of global reserves. India can have access to uranium supplies from members of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group of which Kazakhstan is a member. Moreover, India could cooperate in building Kazakh atomic energy industry which is now supported mainly by Russia.

The Central Asian Republics and Caspian countries are now aware of their huge energy potential which can play a vital role in their development and independence. For instance Statistical review of World energy, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have 16, 5 bln barrels of oil and gas including Uzbekistan is 202 bln cube m. (12). By 2010 it is estimated that extraction will grow by 3, 8 barrels of oil which is 38 % of what is extracted today in Northern Sea. Growing significance of Caspian region caused Assembly of Council of Europe to declare Caspian Sea as centre of European energy security. (13) They are also putting in place investment regimes with a view to attracting the latest technology and financing to unlock their hydrocarbon potential. The context and timing is ripe, therefore, for India, with its acute vulnerability caused by huge and growing dependence on imported energy to turn to its extended neighbourhood in Central Asia for alternate sources of supply.

Oil and gas are nice additions for strategy of national development. If oil rich countries including Kazakhstan do not use gifted wealth for development of human resources, soon they would begin to go back and degrade.

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1. 
   Стратегия 2030, 1997, октябрь. - С.12.
   
2. 
   Аналитический доклад, подготовленный экспертами Объединенного бюро информации и стратегических оценок «Вектор», 2002, ноябрь.- С. 29.
   
3. 
   EIA Country Analysis Brief, Kazakhstan, July 2005. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/kazak.html
   
4. 
   Sudha Mahalingam, India – Kazakhstan: Building Energy Bridges // Eurasia report. - 2006. – November – P. 16.
   
5. 
   Atasu-Alashankou Pipeline Cements Strategic Alliance between Beijing and Astana // http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2370620
   
6. 
   Разумов Я. Азиатский диалог сотрудничества // Панорама. – 2006.- 20 октября.
   
7. 
   Галкина Е. Комиссар Еврокомиссии призывает Казахстан активизировать энергетическое сотрудничество с ЕС // Панорама.- 2006. - 27 октября.
   
8. 
   Назарбаев Н.А. Через Иран проходит самый лучший маршрут для экспорта нефти и других полезных ископаемых Казахстана // www.olo.ru/news/economy/32892.html
   
9. 
   Sudha Mahalingam, India – Kazakhstan: Building Energy Bridges // Eurasia report. - 2006. – November – P. 16.
   
10. 
    Там же
    
11. 
    Integrated Energy Policy Report of the expert committee, Govt of India, Planning Commission, 2006, August. – P. 24.
    
12. 
    British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2004. - P.14-27
    
13. 
    Фадеев А. Каспий — внутреннее море США? // www.contrtv.ru/common/794.
    

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Данная статья посвящена вопросам национальной энергетической стратегии Казахстана. В ней рассматриваются приоритеты внутреннего развития Казахстана и роль энергетики. В работе затрагиваются также вопросы энергетики во внешней политике страны.