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WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS AND BANK SYSTEM OF RUSSIA
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WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS AND BANK SYSTEM OF RUSSIAVolodchenko A.S.,a post-graduate student The modern bank system of Russia was issued in its classical kind twenty years ago, during the market reforms. Bank institutes were created to serve certain branches of economy. During the short period of existence Russian banks did not have time to save up greater financial resources (in comparison with foreign banks) and to develop attractive operating conditions with big clients (the level of mistrust to domestic banks is too high, when even the Government of Russia places the Stabilization Fund in foreign banks is too high). In such conditions large domestic borrowers are compelled to address to foreign financial credit-institutions to receive large credits. Besides, rates of refinancing in foreign banks are considerably lower than in the Central Bank of Russia; therefore domestic banks are also compelled to be financed in foreign banks. For comparison it is possible to track the difference of rates in Russia and the USA (Table 1). Table 1. The comparative analysis of interest rates of Russia and the USA.
The basic source of formation of liquidity in Russia is the proceeds from export which, acting in the form of currency, is converted in rouble weight. On the background of hypothecary crisis in the USA many foreign banks have started to toughen conditions of delivering credits, and to reconsider interest rates under credits with their further increase as well. The given circumstance could have been reflected not strongly in the bank system of Russia, if it were not the falling of oil, as the basic component of export of Russia. Deprecication of the oil price up to 40 dollars from 120 dollars has led to the necessity of carrying out of devaluation of rouble in relation to dollar. Strong rouble on a background of falling of the cost of export could have lead to deterioration of the balance of payments of Russia. The total sum of credits of domestic banks and the enterprises managed to be reduced owing to the saved up reserves, in particular to the Stabilization fund. In view of internal problems of the bank system in Russia, global problems of steady development of economy, and also cyclicity of development of the world economy were added. Possible consequences of the current crisis in bank activites are identical to realization of the script of elementary deficiency of events cash. Here the possible events are Represented: Change of quantity of banks. The hot theme of a possible collapse of the bank system dazzles with the nonprofessional forecasts-horror stories containing, for example, the information on reduction of quantity of banks up to 300 within 2009. Counting more then 1100 banks in Russia now it would mean 30 %-s' reduction. Meanwhile the rate of the response of licenses from banks, which it is possible to judge according to on the infcrination site of the Central Bank, speaks well for more modest values. Probably, 10-20 % of banks will be compelled to stop the activity in the following year. The others will remain on aflaat owing to the skill of manipulating the financial streams. Redistribution of means. Beside the reduction of number, sharp integration and consolidation of banks-monsters with a historical accessory to the first echelon the are like to happenin our Bank system.State support will cause the subsequent overflow in them both money, and clients. The solid piece of the pie cut off the international reserves, has been given first of all to the Foreign trade and investment bank and the Savings Bank. The enchantling sum of "help" of 950 billion roubles theoretically should miss among other banks through them While it is known about plans of distribution of a part of the means in favour of The Russian agricultural bank and The foreign trade bank, and it is declared, that to the aid can count and other banks can count to the did. The change of structure of actives and passives as a whole, defining by the current operations - refinancing, compression of a credit portfolio down Before to its sale the agencies on work with debts, minimization not very profitable operations. Here the segments of a big interest to the population are hypothecary crediting and consumer. The mortgage with rates above 20-25 % will lose the appeal, and the segment of consumer crediting will stop the rapid growth because of new requirements to potential borrowers. Сonsumer сredits without maintenance will leave for the past as tools with very high risk. The modified hypothecary segment will become inaccessible to a greater part of the population. The promise of the state "to redeem" the hypothecary debts is yet no more than a slogan, and does not raise trust fron the debtors. If repayments don t occur, negative experience of debtors under the mortgage will get the basic deterrent for all comers habitation in the future. At last, as for that which is interesting to manufacturers of production and should be supervised by the state. Crediting of real sector of economy even without the crisis left much to be desired. This segment of strategic importance has greater feedback from investments - at growth of volumes of crediting for 70 % gross domestic product grew on 6-7 %. It is obvious, that without power decisions "from above" crediting of manufacturers can stop completely, and the country will finally get stuck in recession. Volumes of the placed deposits will undergo to reduction, with an opportunity of growth of currency contributions. The measures taken up to before the sharp stage of the crisis could resist to the mass withdrawal of contributions only partially. The threshold of the means protected by the insurance wasincreased on October, 1st up to 700 thousand of roubles, can exist only on paper. Everybody knows, that in connection with the last events on devaluation of rouble cash is connected by currency deposits, and in practice unobstructed and one-stage delivery of such sums to investors is impossible. Some bank operations and services can. Become gualitative others. For example, the market of interbank operations in December, 2008 “ showed teeth ” to the participants of the system of interbank calculations - when rates on one-day credits rose above 22 %. Such rates haven t existed for more than a year, and in conditions of general converting the means in currency the by banks deficiency of rouble liquidity can raise them even more strongly. The segment of autocrediting considerably prosat down because of the crisis, has already became the proving ground for new ideas. Some banks of the second echelon have begun the compaign on crediting purchases of second-hand cars. It is difficult to say, in which ways banks will try to keep clients: delivering percent under contributions at hove or valuable presents to everyone who opens an account. In this respect activity of bank experts in marketing within 2009 can surprise citizens. According to the opinion of analysts, on the beginning of 2009 the optimum rate of the annual deposit is the rate at the level of 15 % annual in roubles and about 11-12 % in currency. Optimum cost of rouble credits for citizens now makes 21-24 % annual. At the increasing of the cost of money real interest rates will grow. The raising of percent under contributions up to 20 and more percent within 2009 is not excluded. In addition , mass downturn of ratings to all banks of the world financial system has forced rating agencies to begin the begun process of revision of risks. If credit ratings of banks-inhabitants as. Wall Street have gone down, but have not fallen outside the limits of an investment category (with the letter designations A) to the majority of the Russian banks having ratings of a category B (the risk of a default is limited), it is necessary “ to hold an alignment ” on the group C Which will mean speculative properties of credit status. It is clear, that in this situation the way to the civilized loans in the international markets is postponed for an uncertain term. All the listed is not so bad: the Russian banks made a big way from cleanly speculative operations to civilized crediting of real sector and the population, will be compelled to find a new point of balance between “ means and their sources ” (interpretation of actives and passives). It will be interesting for everybody watch how they will restore trust of consumers and to patch holes in the balances.
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